Entry model · v1.0
SIREN — Failed Supply & Demand
Trade the failure, not the zone: when a demand or supply zone breaks decisively, the trapped traders’ stops fuel continuation and the zone inverts — failed demand becomes resistance, failed supply becomes support. Enter on the retest of the failed zone with lower-timeframe confirmation.
- LONDON
- NY AM
- MIN R:R 2:1
- RISK 0.5%
Required
Every box checks or there is no trade
- HTF bias supports the failure direction (with the trend, not against it)
- Zone was fresh and clearly defined BEFORE the failure
- Decisive CLOSE through the zone — a wick is a sweep, not a failure
- The failure showed displacement (strong body, acceptance beyond)
- Market structure shifted with the break (swing broken)
- Enter on the RETEST of the failed zone — never chase the breakout
- LTF confirmation at the retest (sweep, MSS, displacement, FVG)
- Stop beyond the reclaim point; target = opposing liquidity
Optional confluence
Not mandatory — each one adds weight
- Liquidity swept just before the break strengthens the failure
- Shorts from premium, longs from discount of the relevant range
Warnings
If one of these fires, stand down
- Price decisively reclaims the zone — setup dead, cancel it
- Zone tested repeatedly before failing — weaker signal
This checklist ships inside the workstation: the Decision Cockpit scores every rule against the live chart and holds the plan at “needs confirmation” until the required boxes check. Where the model is automated, the backtester replays the same rules over years of history — no lookahead, stop-first fills.
Run this model on live data
SIREN — Failed Supply & Demand is loaded in the playbook. Free in open beta — no account.
Discipline
The model is half the trade.
Define risk before entry, always
Entry, stop, target and size are decided while you are calm — never while in a trade. If you can't state where you're wrong, you don't have a trade.
Risk a fixed fraction (0.25–1%)
Small fixed risk per trade makes losing streaks survivable and keeps your judgement clean. Ten losses at 0.5% is a bruise; at 5% it's the account.
Judge over samples, not single trades
A good trade can lose and a bad trade can win. Evaluate your model over 20+ executions before changing anything — otherwise you're steering by noise.